Optimization of pancreatic cyst surveillance to detect pancreatic cancer: a modelling study to evaluate if less is more

Project summary

Pancreatic cancer is rare (2600 patients per year) and fatal. Pancreatic cysts, on the other hand, are common (49% of the population) and are usually harmless, but sporadically grow into cancer. In this case, early detection offers the best chance of cure. Therefore, guidelines recommend annual cyst checkup. The benefit of this has never been proven and is even strongly doubted, especially for low-risk cysts (LRC). This project investigates whether for LRC less control (e.g. longer intervals) is just as safe but more effective than the current policy. Using data from a long-term study, we are building a simulation model that can predict, for different cancer risk levels, the effects of different scenarios. We are also asking patients about their perceptions, and in what situation they would accept less control, to develop tailored patient information. In this way, we aim to improve cyst management, save costs, and protect patients from unnecessary checkups and anxiety.